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Population, Environment, and Economics



On the threshold of a new world order

by David Sirkin

26 September 2009

The next shoe is ready to drop. The next bubbles are ready to burst. The US Federal Reserve Bank is pumping more money into the economy to keep it going, because inflation has not yet happened. But it will. With public and private debt still high, and the unemployment rate expected to continue to increase, a big correction in the dollar relative to the currencies of debt-holding countries, for example Japan and China, is inevitable. For those countries, who have depended on selling to the US, in addition to lending to the US, for a good portion of their economies, it will be a painful adjustment. They have been avoiding it. In the end, however, the currency correction (a collapse of the dollar) will happen, and the immediate effect will be the US's gain and Japan and China's loss: the dollar debts the US owes to the Asian countries will be worth less. The difficult period of adjustment for all countries will follow.

But then the global recovery from the world financial crisis truly will be able to begin, and a new world order will emerge, in which the US once more will be a manufacturing country, as one of the relatively low-wage countries of the world. And consumption no longer will be concentrated in the US, but will be more evenly scattered among the wealthiest people around the globe. The US will become an exporting nation. A few countries, for example Japan, some European countries, and probably Canada and Australia, will still be able to be considered rich, being able to boast of high standards of living for the majorities of their people. The US will not be among them. The US will resemble more closely China, Brazil, and maybe even India and Mexico, with a small percentage of very wealthy people, and a large mass of quite poor people.

Russia may be another country that will overtake the US before too long in average standard of living. If the US population continues to grow, and the Russian population continues to shrink or becomes stable, Russia's per-capita wealth, and eventually per-capita income, will rise above ours.

The best hope for the large mass of Americans is to push first for redistributions of wealth and income: changes in a socialist direction, and then for a halt in population growth: measures to limit immigration and to discourage large families. However a difficult change in mindset would be required. Americans have been brainwashed for decades, actually centuries already, by economists, politicians, and religious leaders, to believe that population growth is not only natural, but beneficial. And that socialism is not only unnatural, but evil and harmful.

Population, Environment, and Economics
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